双语英国央行行长全面贸易战将拖累全球增长

双语|英国央行行长：全面贸易战将拖累全球增长

双语|英国央行行长：全面贸易战将拖累全球增长

摘要

英国央行(Bank of England)行长警告，一场全面的贸易战可能会明显拖累全球经济增长，其程度将远远超出提高关税的直接经济影响。 Speaking on the eve of the scheduled imposition of duelling tariffs b......英国央行(Bank of England)行长警告，一场全面的贸易战可能会明显拖累全球经济增长，其程度将远远超出提高关税的直接经济影响。Speaking on the eve of the scheduled imposition of duelling tariffs by the US and China ― which analysts fear could spiral into a broader trade war ― Mark Carney said that Brexit highlighted the damage that could be wreaked by factors such as greater uncertainty.英国央行马克?卡尼在美国和中国开始相互加征关税前夕发表讲话。他说，英国退欧突显了不确定性加大等因素可能造成的损害。As a result, he suggested, a 10 percentage point increase in duties by the US and its trading partners could, in a worst-case scenario, slow US output by as much as 5 per cent over three years.他提出，其结果是，美国和其贸易伙伴若将关税提高10个百分点，在最糟糕的情形下，可能会使美国产出在三年期间放缓5%。“The experience of Brexit underscores that the impact of global trade war will be greater the more business confidence is affected, the more financial conditions tighten and, most fundamentally, the more permanent the loss of openness is expected to be,” Mr Carney said.“英国退欧的经验突显出，商业信心受到的影响越大，金融状况收紧越多，最根本的是，各方对失去开放性的预期越是永久，全球贸易战的影响就将越大，”卡尼表示。The BoE calculates that the tariffs already announced by the US, EU, China, Canada and Mexico would, if implemented, double average bilateral tariffs and raise average US tariffs to their highest level for more than 50 years, to about 4.5 per cent for imports from China and 6.2 per cent for imports from the EU.据英国央行估算，美国、欧盟、中国、加拿大和墨西哥已宣布的关税如果实施到位，将使平均双边关税翻倍，并使美国平均关税提高至50多年来最高水平，对中国输美产品升至4.5%，对欧盟输美产品升至6.2%。The direct effect of these measures would be small and largely confined to the countries directly involved, added Mr Carney, who also chairs the international Financial Stability Board.兼任国际性机构金融稳定委员会主席的卡尼补充称，这些措施的直接影响并不大，而且主要局限于直接涉及的国家。But the BoE’s models suggest that a larger increase in tariffs of 10 percentage points between the US and all its trading partners could take 2.5 per cent off US output and 1 per cent off global output through trade channels alone.但英国央行的模型表明，若美国与其所有贸易伙伴之间的关税升幅达到10个百分点，仅通过贸易渠道就可能使美国产出减少2.5%，全球产出减少1%。He added that if all states increased tariffs against each other, then the hit to growth “would be substantially greater”. If global business confidence fell, financial conditions tightened and the tariffs were viewed as permanent, this “could plausibly double the losses in output”. “In these regards, the current UK experience with Brexit can provide some insight,” Mr Carney added. Even though Britain is not scheduled to leave the EU until March, he argued that uncertainty over future trade relations had already sapped UK business investment and the squeeze on real incomes caused by sterling’s depreciation had hit consumer confidence.他补充说，如果所有国家都提高对彼此的关税，那么对增长的打击“将会大得多”。如果全球商业信心下降，金融状况收紧，关税被视为永久性的，那“可能会可信地导致产出损失翻倍”。“在这些问题上，英国目前在退欧方面的经验可以提供一些启示，”卡尼补充道。尽管英国按时间表要到明年3月才会退出欧盟，但他提出，围绕未来贸易关系的不确定性，已经削弱了英国的商业投资，同时英镑贬值对实际收入的挤压已经打击了消费者信心。As a result, the UK economy had grown up to 2 percentage points less than the BoE would otherwise have expected, given the strong global backdrop and fiscal policy, he said.其结果是，英国经济增幅比英国央行根据强劲的全球背景和财政政策所做出的预测低2个百分点。Over the longer term, these losses would be aggravated because a loss of trade openness would be likely to drag on productivity growth, he added.他补充说，从较长期看，这些损失将会加剧，因为失去贸易开放性很可能会拖累生产率增长。“As we know, the intention of Brexit is not to turn inwards but to broaden openness over time,” Mr Carney said, in a reference to the UK government’s plans to strike new trade deals. “But Brexit will, for a period, be an example of de-globalisation because any reduction in openness with the EU is unlikely to be immediately compensated by new ties of a similar magnitude with other trade partners.”“正如我们所知，英国退欧的意图不是向内转，而是随着时间的推移扩大开放程度，”卡尼表示。他指的是英国政府计划达成新的贸易协定。“但在一段时间内，英国退欧将成为去全球化的一个例子，因为与欧盟之间的开放程度的减少，不太可能立即得到与其他贸易伙伴之间类似规模的新关系的补偿。”

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